Oh dear me!

Oh dear me, oh dear me, oh dear me! A totally calamitous day on my part in which I couldn't have done worse if I'd spun a coin for each result. Am I psychic as a plank, or just a jinx? Or both?

Honduras v Chile - I predicted the Draw, Chile snatched it by a single goal.
Spain v Switzerland - I went for a 'cagey' Draw but Spain were well and truly caught on the hop, and Switzerland upset the form book with their scrambled goal.
South Africa v Uruguay - Forlan made the difference with 2 goals, and a harsh sending off of the SA goalie made it a breeze for Uruguay.

So all the teams have now played and the tournament begins to get interesting. Let's see if I can improve my sub-par performance so far.

Tomorrow's games:
Argentina v South Korea - Both with a win to their name, but Argentina should easily outclass the Koreans here.
Greece v Nigeria - A tough one to call, but I'll stick with the Europeans and give this one to Greece.
France v Mexico - I believe France will be a major disappointment this year, Mexico will narrowly win this, having shown more hunger in their first game compared to France.
 
Results so far:

Day 1 - 0/2 correct
Day 2 - 2/3 correct
Day 3 - 3/3 correct
Day 4 - 1/3 correct
Day 5 - 2/3 correct
Day 6 - 0/3 correct
Total score - 8/17= 47%

Another decent day's results

Another three games completed, another two correct predictions.

New Zealand v Slovakia - I went for the draw, and New Zealand didn't disappoint, scoring an equaliser in the last minute to earn their first ever World Cup Finals point.
Ivory Coast v Portugal - Ended goalless after a real cat and mouse tactical game. Portugal coming closest to breaking the deadlock by hitting the post. My side bet of Drogba getting a penalty also failed to materialise, although he did put in an appearance in teh second half.
Brazil v N Korea - "The second 'given' of the tournament for me. It has to be Brazil". And so it proved to be, Brazil scoring two goals in the second half.

Tomorrow sees the last of the combatants enter the fray, and the first of the second round of games. With the first round results as a guide, it'll be interesting to see what effect, if any, that has on my predictions.

Honduras v Chile - I'll go for the Draw here, I can't separate these two at the moment.
Spain v Switzerland - Spain are favourites to win the tournament. Switzerland could put up stiff opposition though. I'll go for another cagey Draw (but might change my mind before the match starts!)
South Africa v Uruguay - The first of the second round of matches. Both drew their opening matches, so will need to go for the win. I'll take the Home banker here and a South Africa win.

Results so far:

Day 1 - 0/2 correct
Day 2 - 2/3 correct
Day 3 - 3/3 correct
Day 4 - 1/3 correct
Day 5 - 2/3 correct
Total score - 8/14= 57%

Day 4 results

Day 4, and another day of mixed fortunes - I knew the good streak wouldn't last!

Holland let me down by beating Denmark, but then Japan upset the form book to record a win against Cameroon. Meanwhile Italy the current holders are being tipped in some quarters to retain the title, but I doubt it on this showing. They also let me down, only managing a draw with Paraguay, despite a frantic 30 minutes effort after they grabbed the equaliser.

Tomorrow's games see the two teams I've drawn in our office sweep in action for the first time: Portugal and N Korea. I honestly can't see either of them winning the tournament.

Tuesday's predictions:

New Zealand v Slovakia - a pure guess based on never having seen New Zealand play - I'm going for a Draw here.
Ivory Coast v Portugal - I have to back Portugal to win this, though I expect Drogba (if playing) to fall over for a penalty.
Brazil v N Korea - The second 'given' of the tournament for me. It has to be Brazil.

Results so far:

Day 1 - 0/2 correct
Day 2 - 2/3 correct
Day 3 - 3/3 correct
Day 4 - 1/3 correct
Total score - 6/11= 54%

Full House!

If I'd been told that I'd get a 100% record within 3 days of the start of the World Cup I'd have laughed. However, That's what's happened!

Algeria v Slovenia, I called as a close win for Slovenia. Accordingly, they scored a late goal for the win. Similarly, Serbia v Ghana was decided by a late goal, though Ghana seemed to have had the upper hand  for some time in the second half. Germany v Australia was indeed a given, with the first goal coming within 8 minutes, a second a short while after and another brace in the second half giving my first 100% correct predictions.

So from less than 50% overall, I've moved into a much better position, with over 70% correct results after the first 8 games. Can I keep this up?

 Which brings us to tomorrow's games:

 Holland v Denmark - I can only foresee a Draw here.
Japan v Cameroon - Without Roger Milla, I can't see Cameroon winning this. So a Japan win.
Italy v Paraguay - It's Italy for me.

Results so far:

Day 1 - 0/2 correct
Day 2 - 2/3 correct
Day 3 - 3/3 correct
Total score - 5/8 

The experiment explained

So why am I doing this experiment, you may well ask?

In simple terms, the name of this blog is 'Imperfectionz' - highlighting those little (or not so little) things that we could all improve upon. In this case, predicting the results of football matches.

Given there are three possible results for any one match (Team A win, Team B win, Draw), then the laws of probability suggest that a random guess would get 1 out 3 results correct. A little knowledge of the game and the teams involved should enable that figure to be improved to a greater or lesser extent. Similarly, intuition (or even psychic ability!) should allow an improvement also. But then there is also the jinx factor to take into account. So how do we balance these factors to come up with a likely percentage of correct results?

I'm going to make another prediction.

Starting from a 30% success rate I would hope that my knowledge of the game, plus any psychic ability I may have would improve that to at least 60% if not slightly higher. Add in the jinx factor, and I'm guessing that my final total will actually fall somewhere between 50-54%.

It's only a bit of fun, and the final results should confirm why I'm not a regular at the bookies! Bring on today's games...

Two days, and a first correct prediction

Only the second day of the World Cup, and already I've broken my duck, Argentina having provided my first correct result. To be honest, I'm surprised that it's happened so soon.

Nice to see too that England have a point on the board, my prediction of a draw for their game coming from supporting Tottenham for so long - over the years I've become used to excitement mixed with disappointment. It's just a shame it's only a point. Robert Green must be feeling terrible.

So let's look at the games coming up tomorrow.

Algeria v Slovenia. I know very little about either side, but have a feeling that Slovenia will win a close match.
Serbia v Ghana. Another match with very few clues, so only instinct to go on. My gut says go for Africa, so Ghana it is.
Germany v Australia is pretty much a given. I can't see Australia getting anything out of this one. Germany all the way.

Results so far:

Mexico v South Africa. Prediction Mexico. Result Draw = Wrong
Uruguay v France. Prediction Uruguay. Result Draw = Wrong
South Korea v Greece. Prediction Greece. Result South Korea = Wrong
Argentina v Nigeria. Prediction Argentina. Result Argentina = Right
England v USA. Prediction Draw. Result Draw = Right
Total score - 2/5

It's a funny old game!

Day 2 of the great experiment, and I'm not off to a very good start. Day 2 of this year's World Cup sees 3 games played. I'll take these one by one.

First up at lunchtime is South Korea v Greece. I think this is a fairly simple choice, and it's Greece all the way for me on this one, remembering their 2004 win in the European Championship.

The afternoon match is Argentina v Nigeria. This is a bit more difficult to read, but I think Messi will make the difference (assuming he plays).  close game, but Argentina to shade it.

Which brings us to the big one in the evening: England v USA, There's been a lot of hype written about this game, and given England's propensity for royally cocking things up, this really could go either way, by a big margin. I'm going to be slightly disloyal here,even while wearing my replica England shirt while watching the match, and predict a closely fought draw.

Results so far:

Mexico v South Africa. Prediction Mexico. Result Draw = Wrong
Uruguay v France. Prediction Uruguay. Result Draw = Wrong
0/2

South Korea v Greece. Prediction Greece
Argentina v Nigeria. Prediction Argentina
England v USA. Prediction Draw

An experiment begins…

I’m sitting here watching the World Cup in play on TV, so I guess it’s time for a little experiment into randomness and my imperfections.

Over the next couple of weeks, I’m going to try to predict the results of the Group matches, on a Win/Draw/Lose basis. My predictions will not be based upon any deep statistical analysis, but on a ‘gut feel’ after browsing the pundits’ headlines. I’m no football tactician, though I do enjoy watching the Beautiful Game.

So, here we are on the opening day and there are two games today, the first is already over. Prior to the game, I fancied Mexico to beat the hosts South Africa, I was wrong, the result was a draw, although the stats on the BBC suggest that Mexico did indeed have the better of the possession and goal attempts.

The other game today is Uruguay v France. I strongly fancied Uruguay in this game, but as half time approaches, France have had the better of play so far, We’ll see what happens…

Experiment Results so far:
Predictions:2   Correct: 0   Incorrect: 1

Too much in my head!

Today has been one of those days where I have so much going on in my head, I don't get anything done. I have a list of projects as long as my arm, but keep thinking of more, rather than  actually starting or completing any of them.

Today, genealogy has been to the fore, thinking about how I can best present the movement of my family over the years on a Google map. Lots of ideas for how a map entry could be formatted, and what information could/should be included. These ideas then expand - for instance; multiple maps, one per family, an overview map, how best to collate the information and researching the best way to 'batch' the creation of the map entries.

And that's just from one idea! I'm sure there must be a name for such an affliction... maybe I should do some research into it? No, wait...

A technology nightmare weekend

This is a rant about an awful weekend...

1. A portable netbook that no longer recognises that a fully charged battery is available for use, restricting me to mains power only on a 'portable' device!


2. A Sky digibox that refuses to come out of Standby mode.
1. Sky website is down, and phones not being answered, so no tech help available.


3. A week-old T-Mobile G1 that refuses to accept that an operating system update (Android 1.5) is available.
1. T-Mobile refuse to accept that it's their responsibility - "it's down to Google to send out updates".
2. Google web site states "the timing of updates is down to individual operators"
   


4. A 2-month old, G1 (updated Android 1.5 after a week of use) to that suddenly refuses to send text messages.

Oh yes, it's been a good weekend!

But let's expand a little bit on item 3 in the list above:

Last weekend, after more years than I care to think about as a Nokia fanboy, and after much contemplation and gnashing of teeth, I bit the bullet and 'upgraded' to a T-Mobile G1 phone. Now, I like to think I keep my finger on the pulse, and I've heard lots of good things about this phone. I'm keen, I'm eager to see what it can do. So much so that my partner got a G1 a couple of months ago so I could see what it was like. Ok, so hers waited a few days, but eventually the 1.5 'Cupcake' update notification arrived. Since then, her phone's been solid as a rock. Ok, so it's not the best camera in the world, but at least it now does video, right?

So I popped into my local T-Mobile store and got the upgrade. It costs me a little bit more each month on my contract, but not enough to worry about.

So like I said, I'm keen. I'm eager. Let's see what goodies are out there that I might find useful. First up, something simple, some toggle applications for Bluetooth, Wireless, GPS etc. to save keep delving into the Settings dialogs. Fire up Market and search for toggle. Nada, zip, zilch. All those lovely toggle apps loaded onto my partner's phone are just not found on mine. WTF?

Ok, let's look for something else. Pop along to the Androlib web site (which is a wonderful web view on the Android Market) and look for some goodies. Armed with a list of potentially useful software titles, I fired up the phone and started searching. Not one of the titles on my selected list was found! NOT ONE!

Ok, remain calm. It must be because I'm still on Android V1.0 (RC8) as supplied in factory settings. I download the AnyCut software (which was found) as suggested by someone in my office, and look at the phone info. V1.0 (RC8) is confirmed, but aha! There's a button at the bottom of the display to 'check for upgrade'. Surely that'll identify that I'm running on a crippled version of the software and spark the upgrade? Nope. Nothing found.

So, a week later and still no automatic Over The Air (OTA) update and time to call tech support. have you ever tried to engage in a conversation with T-Mobile technical support? 20 minutes of wait time to finally speak to someone on another continent who has no idea what I'm talking about when I mention Android. The sum total of her 'advice' was to ask what colour my phone was!

Back into my local branch early on Saturday. They also had no real idea, but did get me put through to someone in tech support who seemed to have a clue. But it turned out he was only Googling the subject as we were speaking. This is a route I've already gone down, and decided that I didn't want to download a potentially old and dodgy RAM image and update the phone myself. I want the official OTA update, but was told that this isn't something T-Mobile has any control over, it's down to Google to send out the updates.

Back home, and onto the web. The first official Google/Android web site I find on the matter states plainly that "timing of updates is down to individual operators".

It's now Monday and I'm sitting here steaming. Still no official notification of update. No idea of how long before I get it (if I ever do). No video on the phone, No useful software - though the Googlemail inegration does work well, it has to be said. No Latitude support in Google Maps.

Where do I go now to get the official update? All suggestions gratefully received...