The end of the experiment

And so the final group games are completed, and my prediction experiment comes to an end. The final four games' predictions were split 50/50..

Group G:
North Korea v Ivory Coast. As expected, Ivory Coast won this one with ease.
Portugal v Brazil. This was a largely lifeless game, and a bit of a disappointment, particularly as I thought Brazil would assert themselves ready for the later rounds. Brazil and Portugal qualify.
Group H:
Chile v Spain, as expected resulted in a win for Spain. Though Chile played bravely with 10 men for most of the game, and will be one to watch in the later stages.
Switzerland v Honduras played out a goalless draw, giving me only 2/4 for the last day. Chile and Spain qualify.

Results so far:
Week 1 - 11/20 Correct
Week 2 - 12/24 Correct
Day 15 - 2/4 Correct 
Total Score - 25/48 = 52%

Analysis of my performance to follow...

Another upset - Caio Italia!

Today's results show that there's nothing easy in the prediction game.Looking at general form, there were some obvious results to be predictd from the games, but I got them seriously wrong! Is it player's nerves as the stakes increase, or complacency on my part? My percentage has taken a hit with these results, and only one day's games left to play in the Groups

Today's Games:
Group F:
Paraguay v New Zealand. I'm not sure if Paraguay took it easy, or New Zealand made it difficult, but nothing could separate these two in a goalless draw. I got this wrong.
Slovakia v Italy. Another comparatively shocking result. Italy are out. I caught glimpses of this match and it seemed as if Italy couldn't be bothered till quite late in the game. Another incorrect prediction.
Group E:
Cameroon v Netherlands. Aha! I got one right. Cameroon equalised but Netherlands retaliated again for the win.
Denmark v Japan. Another wrong prediction. Japan made Denmark look simply pedestrian. The Danes have been very disappointing all the way through for me.

Tomorrow's games:
And the final predictions in my experiment.
Group G: North Korea v Ivory Coast, Portugal v Brazil. Ivory Coast can qualify only if they win and Brazil put a dozen or so past Portugal. I expect Ivory Coast to indeed get the win, but the other game will be close. Brazil by a single goal? Brazil and Portugal to qualify.
Group H: Chile v Spain, Switzerland v Honduras. I have to take Spain to win their game (my daughters would never forgive me if I did otherwise). If Switzerland also win their game, qualification could depend on the number of goals on the night. I have a funny feeling Honduras will steal a point though, leaving Chile and Spain to qualify.

Results so far:
Week 1 - 11/20 Correct
Day 8 - 1/3 Correct
Day 9 - 1/3 Correct
Day 10 - 2/3 Correct
Day 11 - 3/3 Correct
Day 12 - 2/4 Correct
Day 13 - 2/4 Correct
Day 14 - 1/4 Correct 
Total Score - 23/44 = 52%

England make it - just!

That was a very nervous day!

England have this nasty habit of qualifying for the latter stages of the World Cup fnals in the most difficult way possible. They have played three games, winning only 1 and scoring only 2 goals, and yet they qualify! And surprise, surprise, we'll now meet our friends Germany in the last 16.

Today's results:
Group C:
Slovenia v England. As far as predictions are concerned, I listened to my head on this one, and thankfully got it wrong! That's one I don't mind messing up.
USA v Algeria. Only a single goal separated these two, and that was scored with pretty much the last kick of the game  - I thought it would be more one-sided, but at least I predicted the winners correctly. USA and England qualify.
Group D:
Australia v Serbia. I would have got this one right, if Serbia had not had two goals disallowed, and a perfectly good penalty turned down. 
Ghana v Germany. Another game with only a single game, and the ineviatble happened. Germany and Ghana qualify. Ghana are the only African team to qualify for the last 16.

Tomorrow's Games:

Group F: Paraguay v New Zealand, Slovakia v Italy. No messing, Paraguay and Italy both to win and qualify. The last 16 is unthinkable without Italy in there, but then people coould have said that about France until recently!
Group E: Cameroon v Netherlands, Denmark v Japan. I'm afraid Cameroon have very little chance of winning, and cannot qualify, so Netherlands should win comfortably. The other game is more difficult to call, so I'll go for the Draw. Netherlands and Japan to qualify.

Results so far:
Week 1 - 11/20 Correct
Day 8 - 1/3 Correct
Day 9 - 1/3 Correct
Day 10 - 2/3 Correct
Day 11 - 3/3 Correct
Day 12 - 2/4 Correct
Day 13 - 2/4 Correct 
Total Score - 22/40 = 55%

Four go home, four go forward

And so the cull begins. Four teams have left the tournament today, and my little experiment has only a few days left to run. I've been reasonably pleased with my results so far, which numerically have fit in with my expectations, considering the number of games that have not gone to form.

Today's Results:
Group A: France v South Africa, I expected a draw, but South Africa managed a win against 10-man France. 
Mexico v Uruguay - I was correct in saying this would be a narrow Uruguay win. So Mexico and Uruguay go through.
Group B: Greece v Argentina - Greece came to stifle the game, and largely succeeded. But Argentina finally broke the deadlock with two goals in the last 10 minutes.
Nigeria v South Korea - A back and forth game. Nigeria led, then South Korea struck back before Nigeria finally equalised to upset my prediction. Argentina and South Korea go through.

Tomorrow's matches.
Group C: Slovenia v England, USA v Algeria. I have extreme difficulty with this one. My heart says England will come good (and surprisingly they are the bookies favourite to top the group), but my head says Slovenia will win. I fully expect the USA to dispatch Algeria with no problem.
Group D: Australia v Serbia, Ghana v Germany. This prediction lark should be getting easier, but I'm finding exactly the opposite. If Serbia win, they will qualify. I expect Serbia to do exactly that. As for Ghana and Germany, I wouldn't bet against Germany in this one. So four games with no draws.

Results so far:
Week 1 - 11/20 Correct
Day 8 - 1/3 Correct
Day 9 - 1/3 Correct
Day 10 - 2/3 Correct
Day 11 - 3/3 Correct
Day 12 - 2/4 Correct
Total Score - 20/36 = 55%

Start saying goodbye!

Today was the last day before the final group games. From tomorrow, half the teams will be playing their last game in these World Cup finals and will be heading home. Already several teams know their fate prior to the last game.

One thing I hadn't factored into my predictions so far was the teams' prior knowledge of where they stood. With only one game played at a time, the teams have been aware of other results in their group before going into the game. After today's games, this will no longer be the case. The remaining games in each group will be played simultaneously. This reduces the likelyhood of teams 'playing safe' or playing for a draw. It should be all to play for now.

Today's games:
Portugal v North Korea - Well I got this right, and how! Seven goals from Portugal put paid to North Korea's World Cup. Could Portugal turn out to be my financial saviours in the office sweep?
Chile v Switzerland - Chile were on top for most of this match, against a 10-man Switxerland, the ref going crazy with the cards for no apparent reason in a lot of cases. Will there be any players left for the final match? Anyway, another success for me today!
Spain v Honduras - This was more than comfortable for Spain, they could have had a hatful like Portugal but were missing the final touch as well as missing a penalty. However, 3 out of 3 for me for only the second time.

Tomorrow's Games:
Group A: France v South Africa, Mexico v Uruguay - The French training camp is in total disarray at the moment, with their main striker sent home in disgrace and the players refusing to train. Both France and South Africa need a win to have any chance of remaining, but I can only see France being humbled by a draw here. Mexico v Uruguay both need at least a point, just in case. For this reason I foresee a cagey game with Uruguay possibly nicking it by a single goal.
Group B: Greece v Argentina, Nigeria v South Korea - Argentina have effectively already qualified, but Greece or South Korea could join them. I think Argentina will be too strong for Greece, and will qualify with a 100% record. South Korea should have the beating of Nigeria too.

Results so far:
Week 1 - 11/20 Correct
Day 8 - 1/3 Correct
Day 9 - 1/3 Correct
Day 10 - 2/3 Correct
Day 11 - 3/3 Correct
Total Score - 18/32 = 56%

Maintaining an average - just!

The shocks just keep coming, making any form of prediction very tricky. Today it was the turn of Italy (again!) to provide a major shock by failing to beat one of the rank outsiders, New Zealand.

Slovakia v Paraguay - I managed to predict this correctly - Paraguay are one of the dark horses of the tournament, and could go a long way.
Italy v New Zealand - After this draw, Italy are in danger of missing qualification for the next round, and are also severely damaging my success rate too.
Brazil v Ivory Coast - A scintillating (and at times rugged) match in which, as predicted, Braizil came out winners. And that just about keeps my success rate above the 50% mark.

Tomorrow's games:
Portugal v North Korea - I've drawn both these teams in our office sweepstake. For the sake of longevity, its a Portugal win for me.
Chile v Switzerland - There's nothing to separate these two sides in the tournament so far, but I think Chile will just scrape through a closely fought game as victors.
Spain v Honduras - Both sides lost their first game, but I suspect Spain will now come good. A comfortable Spain win.

Results so far:

Week 1 - 11/20 Correct
Day 8 - 1/3 Correct
Day 9 - 1/3 Correct
Day 10 - 2/3 Correct
Total Score - 15/29 = 51%

First exit. Bye bye Cameroon

It would appear that the form book (or at least, my version of it!) has been thrown out of the window, or is largely being ignored at this World Cup. My prediction percentage rate is falling with each passing day now. Maybe I'm just losing interest after the England (non) performance yesterday?

Netherlands v Japan - A single goal separated these teams in the end, but not in the way I forecast. A miss.
Ghana v Australia - I was right in that the Roos will go home from the tournament very disappointed. But Ghana failed to capitalise on the penalty that drew them level.
Cameroon v Denmark - A fascinating game, and my prediction that both would go for it guns blazing appears to have been correct. But Cameroon's last game in the group will be academic - they're on their way home after the Group stage following Denmark's win.

Tomorrow's games:
Slovakia v Paraguay - Honours are even all round in Group F so far, but I expect Paraguay to win this one comfortably.
Italy v New Zealand - Italy must improve, and will do so starting with this match I believe. Thus resolving the Group F deadlock.
Brazil v Ivory Coast - Brazil will be no match for the Africans. Another South American victory.

Results so far:
Week 1 - 11/20 Correct
Day 8 - 1/3 Correct
Day 9 - 1/3 Correct
Total Score - 13 /26 = 50%

The Ref's the Star?

It seems to me that over-zealous referees are becoming a feature of this World Cup. There have been a high number of yellow cards, and several crucial red cards affecting the results so far. Today was another day where referees took centre stage.

Germany v Serbia - A win for Germany? Who could guess this would be one of the upsets of the tournament? Serbia were aided by too many red cards for Klose, and watching Germany miss a penalty is always entertaining for the English. But at the end of the day I got this wrong.
Slovenia v USA - I went for the Draw, which proved correct. But for a large percentage of the time this was going Slovenia's way. And yet at the end, it could so easily have gone the other way too. Again, the referee played his part by disallowing the USA a perfectly good goal.
England v Algeria - Dire. I was very tempted to mark this as an Algeria win, but patriotism got the better of me. Not a good move in the prediction game. Either way, this was a dire, dire draw, leaving England with it all to do in their last match against the group leaders in a few days time.

And so we come to tomorrow's predictions:

Netherlands v Japan - Both sides have a victory to their names so will be looking for a second win to ensure qualification for the knockout round. I quite fancy Japan to pull off a shock in here.
Ghana v Australia - I suspect the Roos will go home from the tournament very disappointed. Ghana win.
Cameroon v Denmark - A draw here will do neither team any good. I feel Denmark will take the upper hand here and grab the points. Denmark win.

Results so far:
Week 1 - 11/20 Correct
Day 8 - 1/3 Correct
Total Score - 12 /23 = 52%

Balance in all things

After yesterday's atrocious results (from my prediction perspective), today's results have leant an air of respectability to the experiment, with another 100% success.

Thje Argentina result was never in doubt, but I was nervous about Greece, especially when Nigeria took the early lead. Luckily they came back into it after Nigeria had a man sent off. The surprise of the day for most people came in the evening match, when Mexico comfortably outplayed France to give me three correct predictions!

Tomorrow's games present three more tricky games to predict.

Germany v Serbia - this should be straightforward for the Germans, especially after their comprehensive first result. A win for Germany.
Slovenia v USA - the hardest to predict from my perspective, so I'll have to go for the Draw.
England v Algeria - Needless to say, I'm hoping against hope that England win this one. I can't foresee any other result, and don't want to think about it too much!

Day 1 - 0/2 correct
Day 2 - 2/3 correct
Day 3 - 3/3 correct
Day 4 - 1/3 correct
Day 5 - 2/3 correct
Day 6 - 0/3 correct
Day 7 - 3/3 correct
Total score Wk 1 - 11/20= 55%

Oh dear me!

Oh dear me, oh dear me, oh dear me! A totally calamitous day on my part in which I couldn't have done worse if I'd spun a coin for each result. Am I psychic as a plank, or just a jinx? Or both?

Honduras v Chile - I predicted the Draw, Chile snatched it by a single goal.
Spain v Switzerland - I went for a 'cagey' Draw but Spain were well and truly caught on the hop, and Switzerland upset the form book with their scrambled goal.
South Africa v Uruguay - Forlan made the difference with 2 goals, and a harsh sending off of the SA goalie made it a breeze for Uruguay.

So all the teams have now played and the tournament begins to get interesting. Let's see if I can improve my sub-par performance so far.

Tomorrow's games:
Argentina v South Korea - Both with a win to their name, but Argentina should easily outclass the Koreans here.
Greece v Nigeria - A tough one to call, but I'll stick with the Europeans and give this one to Greece.
France v Mexico - I believe France will be a major disappointment this year, Mexico will narrowly win this, having shown more hunger in their first game compared to France.
 
Results so far:

Day 1 - 0/2 correct
Day 2 - 2/3 correct
Day 3 - 3/3 correct
Day 4 - 1/3 correct
Day 5 - 2/3 correct
Day 6 - 0/3 correct
Total score - 8/17= 47%

Another decent day's results

Another three games completed, another two correct predictions.

New Zealand v Slovakia - I went for the draw, and New Zealand didn't disappoint, scoring an equaliser in the last minute to earn their first ever World Cup Finals point.
Ivory Coast v Portugal - Ended goalless after a real cat and mouse tactical game. Portugal coming closest to breaking the deadlock by hitting the post. My side bet of Drogba getting a penalty also failed to materialise, although he did put in an appearance in teh second half.
Brazil v N Korea - "The second 'given' of the tournament for me. It has to be Brazil". And so it proved to be, Brazil scoring two goals in the second half.

Tomorrow sees the last of the combatants enter the fray, and the first of the second round of games. With the first round results as a guide, it'll be interesting to see what effect, if any, that has on my predictions.

Honduras v Chile - I'll go for the Draw here, I can't separate these two at the moment.
Spain v Switzerland - Spain are favourites to win the tournament. Switzerland could put up stiff opposition though. I'll go for another cagey Draw (but might change my mind before the match starts!)
South Africa v Uruguay - The first of the second round of matches. Both drew their opening matches, so will need to go for the win. I'll take the Home banker here and a South Africa win.

Results so far:

Day 1 - 0/2 correct
Day 2 - 2/3 correct
Day 3 - 3/3 correct
Day 4 - 1/3 correct
Day 5 - 2/3 correct
Total score - 8/14= 57%

Day 4 results

Day 4, and another day of mixed fortunes - I knew the good streak wouldn't last!

Holland let me down by beating Denmark, but then Japan upset the form book to record a win against Cameroon. Meanwhile Italy the current holders are being tipped in some quarters to retain the title, but I doubt it on this showing. They also let me down, only managing a draw with Paraguay, despite a frantic 30 minutes effort after they grabbed the equaliser.

Tomorrow's games see the two teams I've drawn in our office sweep in action for the first time: Portugal and N Korea. I honestly can't see either of them winning the tournament.

Tuesday's predictions:

New Zealand v Slovakia - a pure guess based on never having seen New Zealand play - I'm going for a Draw here.
Ivory Coast v Portugal - I have to back Portugal to win this, though I expect Drogba (if playing) to fall over for a penalty.
Brazil v N Korea - The second 'given' of the tournament for me. It has to be Brazil.

Results so far:

Day 1 - 0/2 correct
Day 2 - 2/3 correct
Day 3 - 3/3 correct
Day 4 - 1/3 correct
Total score - 6/11= 54%

Full House!

If I'd been told that I'd get a 100% record within 3 days of the start of the World Cup I'd have laughed. However, That's what's happened!

Algeria v Slovenia, I called as a close win for Slovenia. Accordingly, they scored a late goal for the win. Similarly, Serbia v Ghana was decided by a late goal, though Ghana seemed to have had the upper hand  for some time in the second half. Germany v Australia was indeed a given, with the first goal coming within 8 minutes, a second a short while after and another brace in the second half giving my first 100% correct predictions.

So from less than 50% overall, I've moved into a much better position, with over 70% correct results after the first 8 games. Can I keep this up?

 Which brings us to tomorrow's games:

 Holland v Denmark - I can only foresee a Draw here.
Japan v Cameroon - Without Roger Milla, I can't see Cameroon winning this. So a Japan win.
Italy v Paraguay - It's Italy for me.

Results so far:

Day 1 - 0/2 correct
Day 2 - 2/3 correct
Day 3 - 3/3 correct
Total score - 5/8 

The experiment explained

So why am I doing this experiment, you may well ask?

In simple terms, the name of this blog is 'Imperfectionz' - highlighting those little (or not so little) things that we could all improve upon. In this case, predicting the results of football matches.

Given there are three possible results for any one match (Team A win, Team B win, Draw), then the laws of probability suggest that a random guess would get 1 out 3 results correct. A little knowledge of the game and the teams involved should enable that figure to be improved to a greater or lesser extent. Similarly, intuition (or even psychic ability!) should allow an improvement also. But then there is also the jinx factor to take into account. So how do we balance these factors to come up with a likely percentage of correct results?

I'm going to make another prediction.

Starting from a 30% success rate I would hope that my knowledge of the game, plus any psychic ability I may have would improve that to at least 60% if not slightly higher. Add in the jinx factor, and I'm guessing that my final total will actually fall somewhere between 50-54%.

It's only a bit of fun, and the final results should confirm why I'm not a regular at the bookies! Bring on today's games...

Two days, and a first correct prediction

Only the second day of the World Cup, and already I've broken my duck, Argentina having provided my first correct result. To be honest, I'm surprised that it's happened so soon.

Nice to see too that England have a point on the board, my prediction of a draw for their game coming from supporting Tottenham for so long - over the years I've become used to excitement mixed with disappointment. It's just a shame it's only a point. Robert Green must be feeling terrible.

So let's look at the games coming up tomorrow.

Algeria v Slovenia. I know very little about either side, but have a feeling that Slovenia will win a close match.
Serbia v Ghana. Another match with very few clues, so only instinct to go on. My gut says go for Africa, so Ghana it is.
Germany v Australia is pretty much a given. I can't see Australia getting anything out of this one. Germany all the way.

Results so far:

Mexico v South Africa. Prediction Mexico. Result Draw = Wrong
Uruguay v France. Prediction Uruguay. Result Draw = Wrong
South Korea v Greece. Prediction Greece. Result South Korea = Wrong
Argentina v Nigeria. Prediction Argentina. Result Argentina = Right
England v USA. Prediction Draw. Result Draw = Right
Total score - 2/5

It's a funny old game!

Day 2 of the great experiment, and I'm not off to a very good start. Day 2 of this year's World Cup sees 3 games played. I'll take these one by one.

First up at lunchtime is South Korea v Greece. I think this is a fairly simple choice, and it's Greece all the way for me on this one, remembering their 2004 win in the European Championship.

The afternoon match is Argentina v Nigeria. This is a bit more difficult to read, but I think Messi will make the difference (assuming he plays).  close game, but Argentina to shade it.

Which brings us to the big one in the evening: England v USA, There's been a lot of hype written about this game, and given England's propensity for royally cocking things up, this really could go either way, by a big margin. I'm going to be slightly disloyal here,even while wearing my replica England shirt while watching the match, and predict a closely fought draw.

Results so far:

Mexico v South Africa. Prediction Mexico. Result Draw = Wrong
Uruguay v France. Prediction Uruguay. Result Draw = Wrong
0/2

South Korea v Greece. Prediction Greece
Argentina v Nigeria. Prediction Argentina
England v USA. Prediction Draw

An experiment begins…

I’m sitting here watching the World Cup in play on TV, so I guess it’s time for a little experiment into randomness and my imperfections.

Over the next couple of weeks, I’m going to try to predict the results of the Group matches, on a Win/Draw/Lose basis. My predictions will not be based upon any deep statistical analysis, but on a ‘gut feel’ after browsing the pundits’ headlines. I’m no football tactician, though I do enjoy watching the Beautiful Game.

So, here we are on the opening day and there are two games today, the first is already over. Prior to the game, I fancied Mexico to beat the hosts South Africa, I was wrong, the result was a draw, although the stats on the BBC suggest that Mexico did indeed have the better of the possession and goal attempts.

The other game today is Uruguay v France. I strongly fancied Uruguay in this game, but as half time approaches, France have had the better of play so far, We’ll see what happens…

Experiment Results so far:
Predictions:2   Correct: 0   Incorrect: 1

Too much in my head!

Today has been one of those days where I have so much going on in my head, I don't get anything done. I have a list of projects as long as my arm, but keep thinking of more, rather than  actually starting or completing any of them.

Today, genealogy has been to the fore, thinking about how I can best present the movement of my family over the years on a Google map. Lots of ideas for how a map entry could be formatted, and what information could/should be included. These ideas then expand - for instance; multiple maps, one per family, an overview map, how best to collate the information and researching the best way to 'batch' the creation of the map entries.

And that's just from one idea! I'm sure there must be a name for such an affliction... maybe I should do some research into it? No, wait...