I was going to write a post about procrastination...

It's a funny old world. Here we are, halfway through September and I haven't posted anything since the World Cup!

I never fail to amaze myself  with the ideas I have for blog posts. But the ideas always come at the most inopportune times. I may come up with an idea whilst on my daily commute on the tube, but only when I'm walking between stations, on in a crowded compartment that makes taking notes, either on paper or on my phone, difficult at best.

The times when I can actually make notes on my phone, either I have no muse, or the technology fails me and by the time I've got a signal and enough battery power to actually type a note to myself, the fleeting idea has flown. I have tried in the past to run a 'mobile' blog, but again opportunities and ideas never seem to want to meet, or only rarely.

I'm the same with photography. I've taken to making sure I always have a camera with me (the camera in my phone is boogered, so that doesn't count - another example of technology letting me down). I see lots of potential subjects, but usually only when I'm rushing to work, or rushing home, or driving the car. Or it may be a fleeting subject that's gone by the time I've got the camera out and ready. Never when I've got time to compose a shot, or find the right angle. An exception to this is a 'ghost sign' that I spotted near my office the other day. "Black Cat cigarettes. Extra Large, 10 for 6d" - the whole advert would have been three stories high when new. So where's the picture, you may ask? Still in the camera - I haven't got around to unloading and uploading it to my Flickr stream yet. One day, one day soon... But if you can't wait, there are several shots almost identical to mine to be found on Flickr.

So. I have half an hour free, and this blog post is the rushed result. No spell check, no grammar check, just a stream of conciousness with no real beginning, middle or end. Everything you shouldn't do when composing a blog post. Ah well.

Final Score

I've been a bit slow in putting together this final World Cup post. Partly because I was wrapped up in actually watching the final stages, partly because of the bitter, bitter disappointment of the England team's non-performance in those latter stages, which has frankly made me seriously doubt my further interest in the domestic game. But as the new Premiership Season is almost upon us, I thought I'd better finish what I started, for once.

Back at the start of the Experiment, I explained what it was all about, and what I anticipated the final result to to be. I'll quote:

Starting from a 30% success rate I would hope that my knowledge of the game, plus any psychic ability I may have would improve that to at least 60% if not slightly higher. Add in the jinx factor, and I'm guessing that my final total will actually fall somewhere between 50-54%.

So how did I do? From my last post here: Total Score - 25/48 = 52% which was pretty spot on and surprised even me!

Of course, this experiment wasn't at all scientific; my knowledge of the international game may be better or worse than I thought, my psychic abilities may similarly be totally skew whiff to what I think they may be. So many factors, but I find it fascinating that my final result could be so correct. Maybe not as Imperfect as I think, eh?

The end of the experiment

And so the final group games are completed, and my prediction experiment comes to an end. The final four games' predictions were split 50/50..

Group G:
North Korea v Ivory Coast. As expected, Ivory Coast won this one with ease.
Portugal v Brazil. This was a largely lifeless game, and a bit of a disappointment, particularly as I thought Brazil would assert themselves ready for the later rounds. Brazil and Portugal qualify.
Group H:
Chile v Spain, as expected resulted in a win for Spain. Though Chile played bravely with 10 men for most of the game, and will be one to watch in the later stages.
Switzerland v Honduras played out a goalless draw, giving me only 2/4 for the last day. Chile and Spain qualify.

Results so far:
Week 1 - 11/20 Correct
Week 2 - 12/24 Correct
Day 15 - 2/4 Correct 
Total Score - 25/48 = 52%

Analysis of my performance to follow...

Another upset - Caio Italia!

Today's results show that there's nothing easy in the prediction game.Looking at general form, there were some obvious results to be predictd from the games, but I got them seriously wrong! Is it player's nerves as the stakes increase, or complacency on my part? My percentage has taken a hit with these results, and only one day's games left to play in the Groups

Today's Games:
Group F:
Paraguay v New Zealand. I'm not sure if Paraguay took it easy, or New Zealand made it difficult, but nothing could separate these two in a goalless draw. I got this wrong.
Slovakia v Italy. Another comparatively shocking result. Italy are out. I caught glimpses of this match and it seemed as if Italy couldn't be bothered till quite late in the game. Another incorrect prediction.
Group E:
Cameroon v Netherlands. Aha! I got one right. Cameroon equalised but Netherlands retaliated again for the win.
Denmark v Japan. Another wrong prediction. Japan made Denmark look simply pedestrian. The Danes have been very disappointing all the way through for me.

Tomorrow's games:
And the final predictions in my experiment.
Group G: North Korea v Ivory Coast, Portugal v Brazil. Ivory Coast can qualify only if they win and Brazil put a dozen or so past Portugal. I expect Ivory Coast to indeed get the win, but the other game will be close. Brazil by a single goal? Brazil and Portugal to qualify.
Group H: Chile v Spain, Switzerland v Honduras. I have to take Spain to win their game (my daughters would never forgive me if I did otherwise). If Switzerland also win their game, qualification could depend on the number of goals on the night. I have a funny feeling Honduras will steal a point though, leaving Chile and Spain to qualify.

Results so far:
Week 1 - 11/20 Correct
Day 8 - 1/3 Correct
Day 9 - 1/3 Correct
Day 10 - 2/3 Correct
Day 11 - 3/3 Correct
Day 12 - 2/4 Correct
Day 13 - 2/4 Correct
Day 14 - 1/4 Correct 
Total Score - 23/44 = 52%

England make it - just!

That was a very nervous day!

England have this nasty habit of qualifying for the latter stages of the World Cup fnals in the most difficult way possible. They have played three games, winning only 1 and scoring only 2 goals, and yet they qualify! And surprise, surprise, we'll now meet our friends Germany in the last 16.

Today's results:
Group C:
Slovenia v England. As far as predictions are concerned, I listened to my head on this one, and thankfully got it wrong! That's one I don't mind messing up.
USA v Algeria. Only a single goal separated these two, and that was scored with pretty much the last kick of the game  - I thought it would be more one-sided, but at least I predicted the winners correctly. USA and England qualify.
Group D:
Australia v Serbia. I would have got this one right, if Serbia had not had two goals disallowed, and a perfectly good penalty turned down. 
Ghana v Germany. Another game with only a single game, and the ineviatble happened. Germany and Ghana qualify. Ghana are the only African team to qualify for the last 16.

Tomorrow's Games:

Group F: Paraguay v New Zealand, Slovakia v Italy. No messing, Paraguay and Italy both to win and qualify. The last 16 is unthinkable without Italy in there, but then people coould have said that about France until recently!
Group E: Cameroon v Netherlands, Denmark v Japan. I'm afraid Cameroon have very little chance of winning, and cannot qualify, so Netherlands should win comfortably. The other game is more difficult to call, so I'll go for the Draw. Netherlands and Japan to qualify.

Results so far:
Week 1 - 11/20 Correct
Day 8 - 1/3 Correct
Day 9 - 1/3 Correct
Day 10 - 2/3 Correct
Day 11 - 3/3 Correct
Day 12 - 2/4 Correct
Day 13 - 2/4 Correct 
Total Score - 22/40 = 55%

Four go home, four go forward

And so the cull begins. Four teams have left the tournament today, and my little experiment has only a few days left to run. I've been reasonably pleased with my results so far, which numerically have fit in with my expectations, considering the number of games that have not gone to form.

Today's Results:
Group A: France v South Africa, I expected a draw, but South Africa managed a win against 10-man France. 
Mexico v Uruguay - I was correct in saying this would be a narrow Uruguay win. So Mexico and Uruguay go through.
Group B: Greece v Argentina - Greece came to stifle the game, and largely succeeded. But Argentina finally broke the deadlock with two goals in the last 10 minutes.
Nigeria v South Korea - A back and forth game. Nigeria led, then South Korea struck back before Nigeria finally equalised to upset my prediction. Argentina and South Korea go through.

Tomorrow's matches.
Group C: Slovenia v England, USA v Algeria. I have extreme difficulty with this one. My heart says England will come good (and surprisingly they are the bookies favourite to top the group), but my head says Slovenia will win. I fully expect the USA to dispatch Algeria with no problem.
Group D: Australia v Serbia, Ghana v Germany. This prediction lark should be getting easier, but I'm finding exactly the opposite. If Serbia win, they will qualify. I expect Serbia to do exactly that. As for Ghana and Germany, I wouldn't bet against Germany in this one. So four games with no draws.

Results so far:
Week 1 - 11/20 Correct
Day 8 - 1/3 Correct
Day 9 - 1/3 Correct
Day 10 - 2/3 Correct
Day 11 - 3/3 Correct
Day 12 - 2/4 Correct
Total Score - 20/36 = 55%

Start saying goodbye!

Today was the last day before the final group games. From tomorrow, half the teams will be playing their last game in these World Cup finals and will be heading home. Already several teams know their fate prior to the last game.

One thing I hadn't factored into my predictions so far was the teams' prior knowledge of where they stood. With only one game played at a time, the teams have been aware of other results in their group before going into the game. After today's games, this will no longer be the case. The remaining games in each group will be played simultaneously. This reduces the likelyhood of teams 'playing safe' or playing for a draw. It should be all to play for now.

Today's games:
Portugal v North Korea - Well I got this right, and how! Seven goals from Portugal put paid to North Korea's World Cup. Could Portugal turn out to be my financial saviours in the office sweep?
Chile v Switzerland - Chile were on top for most of this match, against a 10-man Switxerland, the ref going crazy with the cards for no apparent reason in a lot of cases. Will there be any players left for the final match? Anyway, another success for me today!
Spain v Honduras - This was more than comfortable for Spain, they could have had a hatful like Portugal but were missing the final touch as well as missing a penalty. However, 3 out of 3 for me for only the second time.

Tomorrow's Games:
Group A: France v South Africa, Mexico v Uruguay - The French training camp is in total disarray at the moment, with their main striker sent home in disgrace and the players refusing to train. Both France and South Africa need a win to have any chance of remaining, but I can only see France being humbled by a draw here. Mexico v Uruguay both need at least a point, just in case. For this reason I foresee a cagey game with Uruguay possibly nicking it by a single goal.
Group B: Greece v Argentina, Nigeria v South Korea - Argentina have effectively already qualified, but Greece or South Korea could join them. I think Argentina will be too strong for Greece, and will qualify with a 100% record. South Korea should have the beating of Nigeria too.

Results so far:
Week 1 - 11/20 Correct
Day 8 - 1/3 Correct
Day 9 - 1/3 Correct
Day 10 - 2/3 Correct
Day 11 - 3/3 Correct
Total Score - 18/32 = 56%

Maintaining an average - just!

The shocks just keep coming, making any form of prediction very tricky. Today it was the turn of Italy (again!) to provide a major shock by failing to beat one of the rank outsiders, New Zealand.

Slovakia v Paraguay - I managed to predict this correctly - Paraguay are one of the dark horses of the tournament, and could go a long way.
Italy v New Zealand - After this draw, Italy are in danger of missing qualification for the next round, and are also severely damaging my success rate too.
Brazil v Ivory Coast - A scintillating (and at times rugged) match in which, as predicted, Braizil came out winners. And that just about keeps my success rate above the 50% mark.

Tomorrow's games:
Portugal v North Korea - I've drawn both these teams in our office sweepstake. For the sake of longevity, its a Portugal win for me.
Chile v Switzerland - There's nothing to separate these two sides in the tournament so far, but I think Chile will just scrape through a closely fought game as victors.
Spain v Honduras - Both sides lost their first game, but I suspect Spain will now come good. A comfortable Spain win.

Results so far:

Week 1 - 11/20 Correct
Day 8 - 1/3 Correct
Day 9 - 1/3 Correct
Day 10 - 2/3 Correct
Total Score - 15/29 = 51%

First exit. Bye bye Cameroon

It would appear that the form book (or at least, my version of it!) has been thrown out of the window, or is largely being ignored at this World Cup. My prediction percentage rate is falling with each passing day now. Maybe I'm just losing interest after the England (non) performance yesterday?

Netherlands v Japan - A single goal separated these teams in the end, but not in the way I forecast. A miss.
Ghana v Australia - I was right in that the Roos will go home from the tournament very disappointed. But Ghana failed to capitalise on the penalty that drew them level.
Cameroon v Denmark - A fascinating game, and my prediction that both would go for it guns blazing appears to have been correct. But Cameroon's last game in the group will be academic - they're on their way home after the Group stage following Denmark's win.

Tomorrow's games:
Slovakia v Paraguay - Honours are even all round in Group F so far, but I expect Paraguay to win this one comfortably.
Italy v New Zealand - Italy must improve, and will do so starting with this match I believe. Thus resolving the Group F deadlock.
Brazil v Ivory Coast - Brazil will be no match for the Africans. Another South American victory.

Results so far:
Week 1 - 11/20 Correct
Day 8 - 1/3 Correct
Day 9 - 1/3 Correct
Total Score - 13 /26 = 50%

The Ref's the Star?

It seems to me that over-zealous referees are becoming a feature of this World Cup. There have been a high number of yellow cards, and several crucial red cards affecting the results so far. Today was another day where referees took centre stage.

Germany v Serbia - A win for Germany? Who could guess this would be one of the upsets of the tournament? Serbia were aided by too many red cards for Klose, and watching Germany miss a penalty is always entertaining for the English. But at the end of the day I got this wrong.
Slovenia v USA - I went for the Draw, which proved correct. But for a large percentage of the time this was going Slovenia's way. And yet at the end, it could so easily have gone the other way too. Again, the referee played his part by disallowing the USA a perfectly good goal.
England v Algeria - Dire. I was very tempted to mark this as an Algeria win, but patriotism got the better of me. Not a good move in the prediction game. Either way, this was a dire, dire draw, leaving England with it all to do in their last match against the group leaders in a few days time.

And so we come to tomorrow's predictions:

Netherlands v Japan - Both sides have a victory to their names so will be looking for a second win to ensure qualification for the knockout round. I quite fancy Japan to pull off a shock in here.
Ghana v Australia - I suspect the Roos will go home from the tournament very disappointed. Ghana win.
Cameroon v Denmark - A draw here will do neither team any good. I feel Denmark will take the upper hand here and grab the points. Denmark win.

Results so far:
Week 1 - 11/20 Correct
Day 8 - 1/3 Correct
Total Score - 12 /23 = 52%