In simple terms, the name of this blog is 'Imperfectionz' - highlighting those little (or not so little) things that we could all improve upon. In this case, predicting the results of football matches.
Given there are three possible results for any one match (Team A win, Team B win, Draw), then the laws of probability suggest that a random guess would get 1 out 3 results correct. A little knowledge of the game and the teams involved should enable that figure to be improved to a greater or lesser extent. Similarly, intuition (or even psychic ability!) should allow an improvement also. But then there is also the jinx factor to take into account. So how do we balance these factors to come up with a likely percentage of correct results?
I'm going to make another prediction.
Starting from a 30% success rate I would hope that my knowledge of the game, plus any psychic ability I may have would improve that to at least 60% if not slightly higher. Add in the jinx factor, and I'm guessing that my final total will actually fall somewhere between 50-54%.
It's only a bit of fun, and the final results should confirm why I'm not a regular at the bookies! Bring on today's games...
No comments:
Post a Comment